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Morning Briefing: August 21st, 2023

Market Overview:

Stocks Look Up: After a challenging week, stock futures are showing signs of resilience with indicators pointing towards a higher open. The market’s upward trajectory is, in part, attributed to renewed interest in buying the dip, particularly in the mega-cap segment. Notably, NVIDIA (NVDA) is drawing attention in pre-open action following HSBC’s decision to up its price target from $600 to $780. NVIDIA is eagerly awaited to unveil its earnings report after the close on Wednesday.

Monetary Policy:

China’s Rate Move: In a move that has caught many off guard, the People’s Bank of China decided to trim its one-year loan prime rate by ten basis points to settle at 3.45%. The 5-year rate remains static at 4.20%. Market analysts had expected more aggressive cuts, thus sparking discussions on China’s monetary policy stance.

US Treasury Notes: The 2-yr Treasury note yield has seen a rise by five basis points, now standing at 4.96%. Similarly, the 10-yr note yield also increased by five basis points, reaching 4.30%.

Corporate Highlights:

  1. NVIDIA (NVDA): Trading at 444.02 with an increase of +11.03 (+2.6%), the company is in the limelight due to HSBC’s revised price target.
  2. Palo Alto Networks (PANW): Trading at 235.84, up by +26.15 (+12.5%). The company reported earnings that exceeded expectations by $0.15 and provided a revenue outlook in line with forecasts.
  3. Regeneron Pharma (REGN): Trading at 822.10, up by +9.70 (+1.2%). The pharmaceutical giant received FDA nod for its EYLEA HD.
  4. Old Dominion (ODFL): The company is reportedly considering a $1.5 billion bid for Yellow (YELL) terminals, as per WSJ sources.
  5. Broadcom (AVGO): The UK CMA gave its green signal for Broadcom’s deal to purchase VMware.
  6. DuPont (DD): The company has confirmed its intentions to offload an 80.1% stake in the Delrin acetal homopolymer business, valuing the venture at $1.8 billion.
  7. Napco Security Systems (NSSC): Trading at a dismal 24.74, down by -13.77 (-35.9%), the company’s Q4 revenue projections did not meet expectations. However, they announced a 28% hike in their quarterly dividend.

Global Market Dynamics:

European Stocks: The European market is showing signs of a rebound from its six-week low. With oil prices on the ascent, energy titans like TotalEnergies SA and Shell Plc are reaping the benefits.

S&P 500’s Struggles: The month of August hasn’t been kind to the S&P 500, which has seen a dip of 4.8%. Market participants are on their toes as they anticipate insights into future policy during the annual central bankers’ meeting at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, is scheduled to address the gathering on Friday.

Expert Opinions:

Evgenia Molotova of Pictet Asset Management emphasizes the market’s dissatisfaction with China’s stimulus measures and its credit availability for consumers. There’s a growing consensus in the US about a potential soft landing for the economy. However, inflation due to robust consumer expenditure and wage growth could pose challenges.

Anna Wong of Bloomberg Economics expects Jerome Powell to emphasize the necessity of higher rates for an extended period while hinting at the culmination of the tightening cycle during his upcoming speech.

David Henry from Quilter Cheviot speculates minimal rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in the foreseeable future, believing that the necessary measures to combat inflation have largely been implemented.

The Big Debate:

Two of Wall Street’s prominent strategists, Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley and David Kostin of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., present contrasting views on the US stock market’s trajectory. While Wilson is cautious, suggesting that investors may be overly optimistic about a soft economic landing, Kostin remains bullish, believing that the economic landscape is favorable for increased exposure.

Wrapping Up:

In the wake of fluctuating global market dynamics and mixed expert opinions, investors remain vigilant. With pivotal events like NVIDIA’s earnings report and Jerome Powell’s speech on the horizon, the week promises to be eventful.

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